agisoon.lol
For decades, the brightest minds have named the year technological progress explodes. The consensus is that there is no consensus.
48 predictions on record
20 already overdue
“Within forty years, Moravec believes, we will achieve human equivalence in our machines.”
Predicted in 1988
“Machines would reach human-level intelligence within about forty years.”
Predicted in 1988
Source: Mind Children / later interview
“It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an 'intelligence explosion.'”
Predicted in 1965
Source: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine
“No later than the year 2030 or he'll be 'surprised'.”
Predicted in 1993
Source: Interviews / updates
“By 2040, we can have robots that are as smart as we are.”
Predicted in 1995
Source: Wired interview
“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever... an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion.'”
Predicted in 1965
Source: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine
“Machines will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.”
Predicted in 1999
Source: The Age of Spiritual Machines
“Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work that a man can do.”
Predicted in 1965
“Predicts the creation of human-level artificial intelligence by 2029 and the singularity by 2045.”
Predicted in 2005
Source: The Singularity Is Near
“Within a generation... the problem of creating artificial intelligence will substantially be solved.”
Predicted in 1967
“The Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a technological singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045.”
Predicted in 2005
Source: The Law of Accelerating Returns
“The Singularity will allow us to transcend these limitations of our biological bodies and brains... We will be able to expand our intelligence by billions of times.”
Predicted in 2005
Source: The Singularity Is Near
“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being... In a few months it will be at genius level and a few months after that its powers will be incalculable.”
Predicted in 1970
“I doubt it will happen in the next couple of centuries.”
Predicted in 2007
Source: Interviews / IEEE Spectrum
“Within our lifetime machines may surpass us in general intelligence.”
Predicted in 1970
“There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.”
Predicted in 2022
Source: Interview / DeepMind statements
“I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: X post, May 2023
“Until quite recently, I thought it was going to be like 20 to 50 years before we have general purpose AI. And now I think it may be 20 years or less.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Interview, 2023
“Ten years later hardware equivalent to a human brain would be cheaply available, and if software development kept pace then machines able to think as well as a human would begin to appear then.”
Predicted in 1978
Source: Today's Computers, Intelligent Machines and Our Future
“I think it's 5 or 6 years away... the definition of digital super intelligence is that it's smarter than any human at anything.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: X Spaces discussion, July 2023
“I expect AI to be capable of superhuman persuasion before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Interview, 2023
“We will soon create intelligences greater than our own. When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity.”
Predicted in 1983
Source: First use of 'Singularity' in this technological sense / later NASA paper
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: The Intelligence Age
“They want to create a machine that can reason, learn, and converse with humans as naturally as another human... It will be the knowledge industry's equivalent of the automobile, the steam engine, and electricity.”
Predicted in 1983
“By 2027, we could have God-like AI.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Situational Awareness
“Predicted that supercomputers would match the human brain before 2010.”
Predicted in 1988
Source: Mind Children
“There is a 50 percent chance of a system that can exhibit all the cognitive capabilities humans can by the end of the decade.”
Predicted in 2023
“~10-15 years to invention, then 5-10 years to full-scale realization.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: X post, September 2023
“By 2010, computers will reach human-level intelligence, and shortly thereafter, they will leave us far behind.”
Predicted in 1988
Source: Mind Children / later interviews
“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.”
Predicted in 1993
“There is a 10 to 20 per cent chance that AI will cause human extinction within the next three decades.”
Predicted in 2024
Source: Interview, December 2024
“AGI is probably five to ten years away.”
Predicted in 2024
Source: Interviews / public statements
“AI will become vastly smarter than any human and would overtake us by 2025.”
Predicted in 2020
“Probably more than 10 years, maybe within 20.”
Predicted in 2024
Source: Interview, February 2024
“AGI could be developed within the next decade, perhaps in five to ten years.”
Predicted in 2021
Source: Interviews / public statements
“Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Machines of Loving Grace
“I don’t think it will be a whole bunch longer than that when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything.”
Predicted in 2025
“The world is less than three years away from AGI that can write as good a novel as J.K. Rowling, discover new physics, or invent new technology.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Interview, December 2023
“AGI by 2030, early 2030s, most likely.”
Predicted in 2025
Source: ARC Prize / interviews
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably in the next year. Like within two years.”
Predicted in 2024
Source: Interview with Norges Bank Investment Management, April 2024
“A lot of scientists agree between five and 20 years. That’s the best bet.”
Predicted in 2025
Source: Financial Times interview, 2025
“The next 18 months will be wild. Recursive self improvement will dramatically increase capability very quickly from here.”
Predicted in 2026
Source: X / posts
“Smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year... Five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.”
Predicted in 2024
Source: Interview / Davos coverage
“Artificial General Intelligence is just a few years away.”
Predicted in 2026
Source: Google I/O, May 2026